The equation: How the Olyroos can qualify for Tokyo 2020 knockout stages

After a win over Argentina and tight defeat to Spain, the Olyroos' fate at Tokyo 2020 remains in their own hands.

Heading into Wednesday's final group stage fixtures, here's the lowdown on how Australia can secure passage to the Quarter-finals. 

Sitting in second spot of Group C, the Olyroos take on fourth-placed Egypt at the Miyagi Stadium at 9pm AEST with everything still to play for.

At the same time, Spain will clash with Argentina at Saitama Stadium, deciding the final make up of a tightly-packed group that is still entirely up in the air. 

A victory or draw will ensure Graham Arnold's squad advance to the knockout stages - however there is a possibility that they could finish anywhere from first to fourth.

Read on to familiarise yourself with all of the possible outcomes - and who the Olyroos might face in the elimination phase of the competition. 


If Australia win... 

A win over African champions Egypt will take the Olyroos to a total of six points and guarantee advancement in first or second position. 

A draw in Wednesday's other fixture would see Spain finish in second on five points and Argentina in third on four - allowing Australia to top the group. 

Alternatively, a victory for Argentina would see them finish on six points alongside the Olyroos. Unless La Albiceleste turn around a two-goal deficit on goal difference, this would also leave Australia sitting at the summit, with Spain eliminated in third on four points. 

However, with La Roja currently holding a one-point advantage on the Olyroos, a win over Argentina would guarantee top spot and ensure the Olyroos can only finish as high as second. 


If Australia draw...

A share of the spoils with Egypt would ensure the Olyroos finish second in Group C and advance to the Quarter-finals. 

This would see Australia finish on four points - equal with Spain who currently pose and identical goal difference of +1. This means that if Spain lose to Argentina, Australia would pip them to second spot with a better goal difference tally, while Argentina would top the group on six points. 

On the other hand, a win for Spain would see Australia extend their advantage in second - trumping Argentina by a point. 

If Spain and Argentina also draw, the group remains as it currently stands: with Spain on top with five points, and Australia ahead of Argentina in second with a superior goal difference. 


If Australia lose... 

If the Olyroos suffer defeat to Egypt, their Olympic journey would come to an end. 

This game shapes as a must-win for the African nation: only a victory over Australia, leapfrogging the Olyroos into second spot on four points, would keep their Olympic dreams alive. 

A Spain victory would see the Olyroos finish in third, ahead of Argentina in fourth. 

A draw would also allow The Pharaohs the opportunity to advance on goal difference, while victory for Argentina would leave Australia's opponents needing a two-goal swing on goal difference to knock out Spain. 

Both of these outcomes would see Australia finish at the foot of the ladder. 

Who comes next? 

In the Quarter-finals, first place in Group C will face second in Group D, whilst first in Group D comes head to head with second in Group C. 

Australia's possible Group D opponents include Brazil, Cote D'Ivoire and Germany - with Saudi Arabia already eliminated in fourth spot. 

Brazil and the Ivory Coast currently occupy first and second place respectively, with both having earned four points. 

Germany are tight on their heals in third with three points. 

Brazil, who defeated Germany 4-0 and played out a 0-0 draw with Ivory Coast, are in the box seat to top the group as they come up against Saudi Arabia. 

Germany take on Ivory Coast in a huge contest that will go a long way to determining the final make-up of the group. 

Both matches kick-off at 6pm AEST on Wednesday, so if the Olyroos are to secure passage to the knockout rounds, they will immediately learn of their next opponent. 

From there, advancement through to the Semi-finals signals two opportunities at coming away from Tokyo 2020 with Australia's first Olympic football medal - either in the final, or third-place play-off. 

READ: Gallant Olyroos stung by late Spain strike